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BUSINESS VALUATION
Musings on business value, sale preparation, sale negotiations, sale structure.

Archive for the ‘Business valuation’ Category

Business as usual

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Imagine your business is, or becomes, black-owned as defined in the BEE codes. You go for that big tender, but you still don’t win it, despite your favourable empowerment credentials. Your big non-compliant competitor wins it instead.


This post is also available on audio


In the disappointment which follows you assume corruption. It is our default position in so many industries. Rampant corruption is the one segment of our daily lives which knows no colour. It is the one real equal opportunity activity in South Africa.

But not all tenders fall to corruption. There are businesses of all hues, tones, and grey scales which do not win tenders. Are all winning competitors corrupt? Probably not. What if they have other strengths with which to bargain?

This is where vanilla black ownership fails in the BEE race for sales. For instance, many tenders go the way of the supplier who is able to offer very favourable payment terms. “Look you have a very poor scorecard, but we’ll give you the business if you agree to no deposit and 90 days payment. From statement.” It is the pain that some non-compliant businesses take.

Poor BEE level businesses have to win contracts with other strengths. If the business has big reserves. Or if it can back the terms off on its own suppliers. Or if it is in its own exclusive and strong niche. These are all gaps for contract winning strategies.

BEE imperatives aside, financing customers with long payment terms remains risky. And risk reduces value multiples.

The contract is value-defeating if it loads the customer exposure index, or if margins suffer. Value decreases if higher operational costs cannot be reduced after the contract and the inevitable project losses.

If the exposure the business has to a single contract is outside sound parameters, then key valuation indicators suffer. Valuation multiples fall. Discount rates rise. That’s ok if the profits rise in proportion to risk. Then values rise. Which is why winning tenders are often more costly to the end user. But then tender reviews become the risk. These short term gains can be very dangerous if there is no plan for life after the tender.

So the winning bidder may have financial reserves to fund the tender. He may have enough swing with his own suppliers so that they help him fund the transaction. He may be able to gain some margin in the tender.

Turnover is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cashflow is reality.

Ultimately the cash flow from the deal will work through to value. In the meantime, that promise of value will be tempered by an assessment of risks taken to gain the cash flow.

 

 

This little piggy went to market

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A market valuation is an expression of the expected offer price in a business sale. It assumes the current prevailing economic conditions and political sentiment. It also assumes an adequate demand from prospective buyers with access to capital.


This post is available on audio


The market valuation is also a product of strengths and weaknesses in the business. We call them key valuation indicators. Compare the KVIs to the financial statements to justify the valuation. They must align. Information must be accurate, and available in a standard format. The format is very often not standard. That does not diminish the value.

The valuer must draw on experience, exposure to deals, and insight of negotiations. This skill will inform the calculations and their variables.

The market valuation result is what one can expect the Business to sell for, as it is, where it is. It is neither definitive nor prescriptive. It does not take into account the vagaries of negotiation, greed, fear, and force of character. By definition of the balance sheet at the end of a financial period, valuation is also time-dependent.

The market valuation puts a stick in the ground. Use it to plan your next step. It is key to building wealth in your business. Don’t be the pig around the stick which rests above the coals of business transfer.

Storing storms

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Pierre Sussex was as stealthy as a Highveld thunderstorm. He walked his factory several times a day. He liked to keep his machine minders on their toes.

Each one had a schedule to work to. Pierre had worked out the best number of parts each machine could produce per day. “Local-efficiency” was his watchword.
Clipboards hung from the corner of each operator’s workstation. He designed reports so that he could run his finger down the last column at any time of the day, and pass comment.
Pierre regarded himself as scrupulously fair on his staff. As long as they agreed with him. Prayer time took place during tea time, Every day. “It keeps everyone focussed on not cheating me out of the time I pay them for”.
He limped down the aisle between machines lined up in the factory.
Every machine with its own local efficiency. “Keeping machinery and operators on the move maximises my return on investment.
“But now it is time. I am 82 next month, and I have put this place in the right frame for a sale. My son agrees with me. And neither of us want to share the business with a black partner. He only holds 12% of the shares, and if we have another partner move in with us, then he will be a minor shareholder. With a boss who is not his dad.”
We walked into the warehouse. “Take a look at all this stock,” he said.
“Efficient machine use and output justify their cost. My people must work. The stock must build up. We will always be able to sell the finished goods.
“We have a part for the battery of every single car which exists on the continent, right now. Nobody else has that. And our customers don’t like to hold stock, so we hold it for them. I will have to build on to the warehouse next year because we will soon fill this one. I put all my profits into stock. If we have a prolonged strike, we will be the only people on the continent with the right parts.”

On a wing and a prayer

We trundled off to the boardroom. And a prayer. Pierre was big on his prayer sessions.
“We make specific parts for the internal part of a battery. They are very specific to each battery size. But our market is opening up now. The new batteries required for the new electric vehicles will all require our parts.
“No, I don’t have any fitted beyond the prototypes right now. But this technological wave is moving fast in our direction. I think we have enough finished parts in the warehouse to supply for a year without having to turn a machine. You know we are in for big political and social upheaval in this country. It is not the same wonderful place I grew up in. I worry for my grandchildren.
“Anyway, here are the financial statements. I want 200M for the business, and then we can talk about the property as well.”
I put my head into the accountant’s office. “Any chance you can get these to me on email?” I asked. We stopped using paper in our office five years back. It had become a nightmare of control issues over clients’ private papers. The risk of fire, and the sheer storage space required, notwithstanding. We prefer electronic storage.
But back to Pierre and his business.
He was a new client. He was 82. He was also an old client. He thought it was a good time to find another owner. He wanted us to manage the process. We had done so for a family member of his two years before.
He was also stuck on the 200M. And that was a problem. Our job is to manage these merger, acquisition, and disposal processes. We have been doing so since 1991. That is a long time in which to learn what works. The stuff which does not work fails for business sellers almost daily.
So there I sat with a hopeful business owner. He had a target upon which he had based his entire retirement planning. He was secure in the knowledge which closeted his own perception of value.
But he was wrong. And that is devastating to a person who wants to get back in the saddle on a farm in the Western Cape. He was tired of the staff, and the sirens, and the stock control, and the late payers, and the approaching social upheaval which he believes is coming.
He was wrong in as much as his business is not worth anything close to 200M. It is not even within striking range of that number. But he has believed for the last decade that this is exactly where he would step off the tram. He has not once, asked for a proper opinion of the value of the business.
Had he done so, he would have been able to adjust his expectations and those of his family. But more likely, he would have been able to address the weaknesses in his business. He may have been able to turn the weaknesses to the benefit of his future.

Get your AFS into gear

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Jim’s business was jalapeño hot. He told me all about it in about 30 seconds of polished elevator pitch over a poor cell phone line. It got me into my car on the way to Springs within half an hour.


PrepareYourBusinessForSale™ is all about getting exactly that done. But in going the PYBFS route, you also get to add value to your business. Here is why.


Early engagements

I walked into an old house. It had been kitted out for the administration of a business designed to churn out products in volume. We had a good natter. He told me some stories. I told him a few of my own. We drank his very nice coffee, and a few hours went by as I went through my interview process.

The house was one the owner had inherited from his mother. It was more than adequate for what it housed.
The growth curve of the business had been steepening. Jim felt that he needed to get an equity partner into the operation to help fund the continuing growth. The only thing that did not flow in the day, was the financial information. There were some issues. “But I will get onto my auditors as soon as you leave, and I will email the financials to you before the end of the week.”

Cape Town

The next day I had an appointment with another business owner who also wanted to sell his business. This time in Cape Town. He had arranged for me to see him as soon as got back from his trip to Italy. So I was up early, and onto a plane. I spent the better part of an afternoon with Mario as well. He also had nice coffee.

Mario has had his business valued by us every year for a long time. He had sent his latest financial statements to my office the previous day. My team picked them up and started putting them into our valuation model.

He also had a very nice business which had a similar problem with growth. He needed to buy some impressive machinery so that the business could continue to grow at the same rate. His financial advisor said it would be a better idea to sell some equity, rather than push the debt level higher. So that was what he intended to do. I am not a financial advisor. I just listen to those guys.

Network

We maintain a detailed mind map database of businesses, funders, and clients. It’s a veritable who owns whom, gleaned from discussions and web pages. It has now grown into a thing of beauty. A few years ago, it was more rudimentary than it is today.
So on the plane home, I went through the database mind map. I kind of killed two birds with the same stone, mid-flight, so to speak. I was looking for relationships between each of two clients and listed companies.

As it happened, Jim had more prospects for what we thought he wanted to do, than Mario did.

When I got back to Jozi, Mario’s financial inputs were complete. I was able to start the pitch analysis with a full deck of cards (and a search for a few more metaphors to throw into the mix). We still always start with an exercise to determine what the market would bear. We do this for every new client.

We stepped up our research of the agendas of the targets for both businesses. For targets, the easiest route to growth is often through acquisition. The intelligence gathering has always been very beneficial. And boy does our industry talk about who wants what. So keeping the database up to date is easy, albeit time-consuming.

It was going to be an interesting time, I thought. The weekend came, and so did Monday. As always.

I called Jim. He was still waiting for his auditor. There was another problem.

Processes

We collected the rest of Mario’s documents which would be necessary for the sale. His web person made some changes to his website which we thought would help. Jim made similar changes himself. He was very good at that sort of stuff.

Both provided company documents for interrogation during a due diligence. We quickly added debtor lists, supplier agreements, bank accounts and employment histories. They were all easily forthcoming from both. All was going well, three weeks into each respective engagement.

Except Jim’s financial statements were still not available.

I should explain at this point. We always ask new clients to supply five years of financial statements. We can build a very good story from that sort of history. Jim could give everything except the last two years. We had all Mario’s history on file.

Jim’s trial balances and draft income statements for the last two years showed great results. There was no reason to doubt them. But it is the financial statements which investors want. The ability to provide annual reports in good time tests the whole governance issue.

Mario goes to market

Six weeks into the Cape Town engagement, and we had prepared Mario to talk to investors. It did not take many, and he had something which made financial sense. His machinery would be ordered soon.

Jim, in the meantime, was struggling. But he was also getting pushy. He wanted to talk to investors as well. So, he sat down with one of them. It was a great meeting. They loved what they saw. He would have the financials to them next week Tuesday, he said.

Tuesday came. The investor called. It looked like it would take a few more days. “A really fine business”, said the potential investor.

A week later, and Jim wanted to see another investor. “Just to have a plan B”. But he was already screwing with Plan A. But he met with Plan B. Then with Plans C, D, and E. And still, the auditors (apparently) were dragging their feet.

All the prospective Plans A to E did not so much lose patience, as simply wander off elsewhere. As business owners, we have limited resources. Sometimes we need to appreciate that the attention span of professionals, faced with various options, only have so much bandwidth.

Jim gets his stuff together

Jim’s financials were published. The trial balance figures were largely confirmed.

Plan A came back from his trip. It was difficult to get hold of him. When Jim did, he did not have much time to talk. Another fantastic deal had presented itself, and he was going hell for leather after it. “You know, that price may have been a bit steep”, he suggested. “Let’s talk next month”.

When Plan B did not return calls, Jim worried. So when he spoke to PlanC, he had lost some of his form. By Plan D, the picture was not pretty. The closing price was always going to be lower than the original nibble.

And over to you now

As much as this is a fiction, it is only partly so. I have written this with a collection of similar experiences over more than 25 years of helping business owners to change their lives. When a business for sale cannot provide information quickly and accurately, the momentum in the deal is lost. Value suffers. Always. When the third prospect goes cold, the seller gets desperate to keep the others happy. Silly things happen.

So what about your financial statements? Don’t be like Jim. Be like Mario. Don’t let them stand in abeyance with your auditor or accounting officer for more than six months, at the outside. If you can get them into your filing cabinet within four months, you will have the edge.

Business valuations | Various applications and costs

Accurate business valuations empower you to make proper decisions.

Divorce or partnership valuations

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When partners split up, there are problems with money and value. Almost always. Oh yes; there was that one time…

This post refers to a dissolving marriage as a model. But the points made, hold for most partnership dissolutions. They are not pleasant, but applying some rules keeps things fair.

Complications arise when married people split their joint estate. If one of the assets includes a business, the recipe is more than “take the white from the egg”.

  1. What is the value of the business?
  2. Where are business proceeds entering each spouse’s pocket?
  3. Open and fair negotiation

1. What is the business value?

The dissolution of any partnership is a transaction itself. It should be accounted for, with a market-related valuation. Business valuation methods start with the company’s financial statements. But the concurrent interrogation of key valuation indicators in the business is critical.

Competent and confident valuers are bold in declaring shortfalls in the discovery. Do not ignore their messages. The valuer will have taken heed of the shortfalls, in arriving at a number. Those noted shortfalls can provide valuable information for later use.

2. Where is each partner currently benefiting?

Every valuation accounts for an element of “normalising” the income statement. This involves removing or adding items which are “out of the ordinary”.
That exercise should also examine what each partner receives before the dissolution, and adjust for what each will receive after the dissolution. Consider adjustments for replacing the partner in day to day work. Understated assets and income, or exaggerated liabilities and expenses mean lower business valuations.

3. Negotiation

A fair negotiation recognises pre partnership equity. The change since then is what you are after.
A fair settlement considers an ex-partner receiving double recovery for a single asset. That would be inequitable.

The most significant asset in a marital estate is often the family business. A fair resolution hinges on an accurate valuation of it. Work with an experienced valuation expert who understands sound valuation concepts. Don’t play the “tarms 20” game.

Motivation in valuation

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Here’s a game I don’t play:

  • “look I need to have as high a value placed on my business as possible, for purposes of
    • taking my partner for as much as possible
    • to prove to my bank that my balance sheet is really strong
    • to show my employees that the long term investment plan is worth them getting no increase this year”
  • “I need you to keep the value as low as possible so that
    • my ex-wife gets nothing
    • I can offer this guy almost nothing for his shares
    • to make a stupid offer for the business”

If Suitegum conducts a valuation on your business, you should understand that under the conditions mentioned in the report, you are going to be able to get that value for your business in the open market.

I have a simple test for the veracity of business valuations which leave my office:

  • If this valuation is too high, to what extent am I exposing us to a damages claim from the owner of the business being valued when he is unable to realise the value, and exposes himself unnecessarily?
  • If the valuation is too low, to what extent would a commission based broker lose out on potential income if he sells it at that value?
  • If I am hauled in front of a bunch of geniuses (auditors, attorneys, judges, magistrates) will I be able to defend each and every finding in the valuation report?

So far that has worked out well.

So when I received a phone call last week suggesting that our valuation had been cast aside in favour of two other valuations conducted by auditors, both of which came in at more than twice the Suitegum value; I sat up straight and asked a few questions.

The circumstances are that the client has had his business valued by us several times over a six year period. The results have been consistent with time and performance. He found himself in the divorce courts in recent times. It wasn’t pretty. A liquidator was appointed to give judgement as to the value of a minority interest.

He kicked the Suitegum valuation into touch, and appointed two audit firms to conduct their own investigation.

In the final analysis, the liquidator was working for a proportion of the valued figure as his remuneration. We have a valuation competitor in the market who charges on that basis. Somewhat compromising, I believe, and in violation of the USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice). With time, someone will test those valuations. Perhaps there will be some explaining to do. Probably not.

Auditors are not covering themselves in glorious integrity at the moment. A profession becomes a business when it chases money at the cost of principle. Why do we expect professional bodies to hold them to account?

Hashtag: 6 CAs on the board of Steinhoff.

 

Imagined reality of business value

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The owner of a business has a reality of value based on his real experience of the benefits which flow to him on a consistent basis. He knows 100% that “the business” makes money for him. He knows that it is more valuable to hold on to it, than to sell it below that value reality.

If a perceived premium offer is made – one which tips the scales of value from worthwhile holding, to worthwhile disposal; the run of play changes. In other words, if the offer received “makes sense” in that the owner will be happier as a former owner than as the current owner, then he will sell.

A buyer of a business can only act on imagined reality. Sure, that imagined reality is based upon thorough investigation; but until it is actually lived, the reality can only be imagined. That imagination is unique to the human race, and I suggest is bound up in the fear and greed dichotomy which grips us all, in all the decisions which we make.

For a business owner to dispose of his business, it is incumbent on him to translate his reality of value into perception of value – imagined reality – in someone else’s hands. Again, in other words; he needs to convince the purchaser of the value. Essentially, he needs to sell the darn thing, just as he would sell anything else.

That is what we strive to achieve with our clients – in helping them through the “PrepareYourBusinessForSale™” program to make them “Prepaired” with their eventual new masters. “Prepaired” is not a spelling mistake. It is what shareholders do in advance of selling their equity: They identify the market, and they make what they’re selling, attractive to that market. They pair their offering with the anticipated requirements of the future owners. They get “prepaired” through PrepareYourBusinessForSale™.

Where realised value meets imagined reality – made incarnate through the transfer of retirement funds. That’s a good thing!

 

 

Does your business need an auditor?

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Does your business need to be audited?

  • Perhaps your memorandum of incorporation or shareholder agreement insists on an audit.
  • Perhaps your business is within certain industries which require one.
  • Perhaps your funders require an auditor’s report annually.
  • Or perhaps you believe still, that all companies need to be audited?

If your PIS falls below 350, you do not need to be audited, and you may be wasting a great deal of money on the annual event.

Oh, but perhaps, just because a firm of auditors send an accountant around to your business every year, you believe you are being audited. Perhaps you are simply being reviewed.

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How KPMG destroys a business’s value

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Background 1

There is a sanctimonious attitude in the auditor profession, generally. It is well earned, and indeed, advertised by SAICA:

  • Years of study.
  • Stringent examination.
  • Long hours of apprenticeship.
  • Big pay cheques – commensurate with experience, dark suits, green pens, and the ever-present gravitas.
  • Non-auditor CA(SA)s take up the lion’s share of CEO positions in JSE listed companies.

They are apparently beyond reproach.

The trust placed in the auditing profession is borne of its rise to excellence, welded to its strict code of conduct, compliance with regulations, and sheer earning power.

By way of illustration on this “earning power” subject; please remember KPMG was paid R23M to “cut” from Tom Moyane’s list of requirements in his brief to the auditor:

  • the required findings, and
  • the names of who’s careers to destroy,
  • which facts to create, and
  • what recommendations to publish…

…and paste those emissions as their own.

(Tom Moyane was also the guy who signed the release from prison of Shabir Shaik, on medical parole, shortly before his unconsummated death).

Background 2

The KVI approach to business valuations and evaluations (and due diligence studies) is based on a potentially exhausting series of probing questionnaires which are scored on

  • Sliding scales
  • Nine box grids
  • Yes / no binaries
  • Weighted averages
  • Vector resultants
  • Answer clouds and
  • Common sense

The outcome is a series of scores which identify the effect of exposure to inherent business risks, balanced against mitigation by imperatives, and the importance of each indicator in

  • The market
  • The industry
  • The geolocation and
  • Any particular point in time.

Background 3

With the “new” Companies Act being enacted in line with the requirements of similar legislation of our trading partners, and international norms, South African companies are increasingly able to compare themselves in performance and value to their international counterparts.
South Africa has a range of reporting requirements, dependent on public interest scores (PIS), Memorandums of incorporation (MOI), and industries and stakeholder requirements.

  • There are various PIS levels.
  • The MOI of the company may require it to be audited.
  • Some industries insist on audits for their members – the estate agents and lawyers, for instance.
  • Investors and lenders may require an audit as part of their covenants.

Background 4

In the sale of a business I brokered about 15 years ago, the target had been well audited, and the buyer was well versed in audit requirements. As part of the negotiation, the new owner asked the auditors to remain on, post deal. The buyer’s thinking, he explained to me, was that the continuity of audit practice gave him comfort in the veracity of the accounts used as a basis for valuation.

In that deal, the purchaser was happy to pay full value and even higher. He knew that the auditor was on the line.

Summary, so far

  • Auditors are held in high regard. They are trusted.
  • Each business has its own DNA, expressed through a variety of key valuation indicators (KVIs).
  • Auditors, although trusted to give veracity to the numbers, are not always required.
  • Where auditors have their round bits on the line, the numbers can be relied on, as a basis for value.

This rather long post serves as background for the developing requirements in business valuation standards. We have always looked at the requirements of various compliances. The adherence to those requirements as a single KVI among many, determines the nature of the valuation method, its multipliers, discounts, and sums.

In the days leading up to the sudden resignations of the leaders at KPMG in South Africa, I was quizzed on the valuation of a business for which I had led a valuation a few months back. The base figures were audited by KPMG. This was the problem. The valuation technique was not being called into question; but rather, the auditors report. “Do you have any idea of what is coming here?” said my critic. I did not.

I do now.

KPMG has taken a small slice of your pension away from you

Which brings me to KPMG and the value of your business

The cynic might suggest that by subjecting his business to an audit, the business owner is purchasing value. By subjecting his company to an audit, conducted by a premier league auditor is no cheap affair, but it does give gravitas to the financial statements and lightens the due diligence expectation in a sale. At an honest level, this is indeed so; the company pays to demonstrate its integrity. But we have to expect that at that honesty level, integrity is also present.

In the cold light of the dawn following the KPMG-SARS cut and thrust paste revelation, there may be several dusty mirrors wedged in the fat, smoky invoice.

{Ed- how the heck does one itemise an invoice over four pages, to the cent in each item, and come to EXACTLY R30,000,000-00? And then you have the friends at SARS to ensure that this amount spent on a family member’s wedding, is written off as a business expense!}

Since the first exposure of KPMG’s nefarious dealings with SARS, I have had two separate and independent parties question the validity of our valuations – not for reason of our methods, which are well regarded, but because the underlying financial information was green penned by KPMG.

Imagine THAT happening before Zuma came to power. Oh, wait… there was Arthur Anderson. Remember them? The consulting and audit firm collapsed worldwide. The local chapter was bought by… ah yes… KPMG. I really should spend some time penning my views on the merging of cultures in mergers, acquisitions and disposals.

Where once subjecting financial reporting to the rigours of an audit gained KVI points, well, for the time being, that is going to be diluted by the criminal actions of KPMG.

#TheMostRobustAuditRegimeInTheWorld – South Africa

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It gets more complex

Zuma, the man who would be king, and president of the country for the time being, having admitted via his legal counsel that he has been stringing us all along for fools, for almost a decade, now wants to make representations to Shaun the shawned wether, as to why he should not be tried for corruption.

We can all be quite sure that the veracity of the corruption report used in Shaik’s trial will on the agenda. That report was authored by … KPMG.

Any more of the current nonsense and South Africa will be downgraded further. And that WILL destroy further value in your business, regardless of who the auditor is.

Valuation indicators Type of business (part1)

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PYBFS015

For many years, the obvious question we would ask all our prospective buyers of businesses, is what business each would like to buy; that is, if they didn’t open the dialogue with a statement like “Hi, I’m looking for a small restaurant / coffee shop / factory / workshop” – the standard greeting from buyers in our industry!

Everyone has his favourite, and equally everyone has his pet hate:

  • Factory owners hate the idea of retail food outlets.
  • Retail food franchisees don’t see why they should have to work as hard as a factory owner. (Their perception, not mine)
  • Retailers tell me how they don’t want to call on their customers – “They must come to me”
  • Agents are happy to rent small offices, employ a few people, and move boxes. Preferably from home.

And it is this difference in favourites, coupled to an ever-changing macro-economic environment which contributes to the differences in values from one sector to another, from one time to another.

The old maxim of “if you have no shop, you have no business” is true for retailers, more so than it is for factories, for instance. Retailers in the small and medium size stratum are notoriously short sighted, in the opinion of almost everybody else. Most retailers are at the mercy of their landlords to start with, and are more often that not, abused by these wily foxes.

The big retailers can swing enough clout to turn the tables and have the landlords at their beck and call, while the small guy must simply take everything that is thrown at him from enforced opening and closing times to arbitrary rule changes, usually at the insistence of a much bigger retailer.

Of course, becoming a small retailer has enough of its own hurdles to overcome, that it’s a wonder that there are any of them in the bigger centres at all. Personal suretyships as well as bank guarantees often accompany the inflated rentals which subsidise the much lower rentals paid by their bigger colleagues in the anchor positions.

In difficult economic times, the small retailers are taken out quickly, and we were inundated with requests to sell “for almost anything” over night. So, retail values plummeted. As times improve though, the buyers of retail operations flood into the market to purchase the very few available businesses still operating after the squeeze. Demand drives prices up in a market being held dear by now cash flush owners.

Demand for retail businesses in good times is high, because most small operations are easy to run, and usually don’t require any specialist training. Entry level buyers from the ranks of the recently retired, retrenched or stressed are the fuel that feeds this machine.

During 2006 we saw a major shift in value from the factory environment to retail because of BBBEE initiatives being brought to bear on factory and wholesale businesses. White people unable to stomach the idea of sharing their businesses sold up and moved to retail where the same pressures did not exist. With the nexy round of codes of practice being released in 2007, this trend reversed with the perceived diminished BEE risk, and retailers suffered as the move to manufacture strengthened.

The fall in retail value was cushioned by the rise in consumer spending with the credit largess of that year and 2008. Big spending led to high profits, which attracted high rentals from more and more shopping centres and strip malls opening.

Came the end of 2008 and the so called “credit crisis”: many, many small and medium size retailers fell off the wagon and placed themselves on the market. A flood of supply of businesses attracting few buyers. None of those sellers had pre-approved credit facilities. The combination led to a general plummet in retail value.

So the first to feel the heat as the global credit crunch took hold were the retailers, with many of the buyers of 2007 and early 2008 now closing shop, unable to sell. That was first true for luxury item stores and fast food centres. One trendy night spot franchise in  particular, had as many as 38 of its franchisee operations for sale in 2009.

With a rise in supply and a fall in demand of any income producing entity, comes an associated fall in any of the multipliers which indicate its value. With a fall in profits, there is a magnified effect on the fall in values.

From all this it is easy to understand the high amplitude and frequency of value change in retail operations from extremely low profit multiples in poor times to frankly stupid multiples in good times. “Stupid”, because it is these new owners who will be taken out in the next downturn.